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Why Retail Investors Are Treating Market Volatility as a Buying Signal

Per new survey work from the Nationwide Retirement Institute, more than three in four American investors expect a recession inside the next twelve months — while simultaneously planning to buy into the drop at the highest rate the study has ever recorded.

Nathaniel Prescott, Lead Wealth Strategist & Solo Columnist·updated July 31, 2026

Why Retail Investors Are Treating Market Volatility as a Buying Signal

That single contradiction is the only number in this dataset worth your attention today, because it tells you what the retail bid actually looks like when the fear gauge is pinned at maximum.

Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide's Investment Management Group, frames it as a behavioral pivot: investors stopped treating drawdowns as exit signals and started treating them as rebalancing windows. Translation — participation has replaced timing as the operating principle. We agree with the principle. We do not yet agree with the execution most respondents are running.

The math, stress-tested

Roughly one in three non-retired investors plans to "take advantage" of volatility over the coming year — up from 21% in summer 2024. Aggressive portfolio management intent has crept from 16% to above 20% over two years. The dataset, however, tells us nothing about valuations, position sizing, or the quality of those theses.

And here is the blunt part: almost four out of ten non-retired investors enter this offensive posture with no formal downside protocol in place — either no risk strategy at all (nearly 30%) or unsure whether one exists (10%). Asymmetric upside only exists when the downside is capped first. Buying volatility without a stop is not offensive investing. It is a higher fee for a worse entry.

What this changes in your portfolio

The real signal is offense plus protection, not offense alone. More than half of non-retired investors said recent market events made them likelier to allocate a slice of the portfolio to annuities or another guaranteed income solution. On the advisor side, registered index-linked annuity use climbed from 39% in summer 2023 to 52% in 2026, a 13-point jump in three years, and 60% of advisors said the past twelve months made them likelier to recommend a guaranteed income sleeve. Brad Carrier, vice president of Nationwide Annuity Distribution, frames the advisor opportunity precisely: build strategies that don't force an either-or decision between growth and protection.

Your move is binary. If you intend to buy through volatility, write down three things before the next click: the entry thesis, your position size relative to total allocation, and the trigger that forces you out. If you want a worked example of a publicly traded retailer working through exactly this consumer-pullback, pricing-pressure regime the data describes, Dollar Tree's evolving strategy is worth reading alongside your own rebalancing plan.

Volatility-driven rebalancing compounds. Volatility-driven FOMO is just a higher fee for a worse entry. Pick the protocol you are actually running.